CLASS 17 TUE MAR 21
Wake Up
Lecture/Demo
- Types of Causal Arguments
- In-Class Exercise: Critique a Draft Causal Argument
- Read the Draft Causal Argument by Username
- Add your own brief Critique in a Reply
By the End of the Day
- Start a post titled “Causal—Username.” and another titled “Causal Rewrite—Username.”
- If you’re ready to start an actual Causal Argument, use this class time to begin the actual process in the “Causal—Username” post.
- If you’re not ready to start writing for real, address your Professor in the first sentence, “I could use some help getting started, Professor.” Something like that.
- “Here’s what I have so far,” you might continue, “Since I’m researching the connection between actual crime and crime statistics, I think the cause-and-effect relationship is crucial to my thesis. We THINK that when more crime is committed, the CRIME RATE will reflect that in higher numbers. But actually, it’s the NUMBER OF CRIMES REPORTED AND LAWS ENFORCED that count in
- the statistics. So . . . “
- And before you know it, you’ll be writing your causal argument.
- Put the post into the Feedback Please category and the Causal Argument category, and publish it by the end of the day.
- Tell me specifically what kind of Feedback you want.
Portfolio Task
- DUE Portfolio Task Causal Argument
- DUE THU MAR 30 (11:59pm WED MAR 29)
Dev
Joe Gramigna
adamreim
alexmoran17
alivewit55
americangods01
anonymous123
Anonymous
azntaco
belldere
bigcounrty609
bigfoot9
bj112295
blueee04
breadpatrol99
brxttyb
calamariii
cfalover
charlieclover
cherries267
chickendinner
chickennugget246
chickennugget444
clevelandbrown03
cocochanel715
comatosefox
crossanlogan
cswilliams15
dancingueen
disneylover2002
doglover846
dontquoteme187
douglasadams525
dt2018
faded26
fatjoe000
friendoftacos
frogs02
fromcasablanca
fulcrum66
g00dsoup
giants19
gingerbreadman27
girlno3
gobirds115
goodmusician440
gracchusbabeuf
hiralp365
ifurreadingthisits2l8
ilovedunkinoverstarbucks
ilovenas
imaspookyghost
inspireangels
JalenHurts4Mvp
jasrielle2
jcirrs
jonnyb25
eagles21
kilotoon
kingofcamp
krackintheneck
Philip Ebenezer
Lily4Pres
littlecow24
ljkvng34
lokiofasgard24
luckyleprechaun1
marinebio18
mellowtacos
miliwawa
minutemen14
mossmacabre
music0392
mymomshouldhavenamedmegrace
ndb1996
neferpitou626
nugget114
oatmealvibes
ohearnj8
palal24
peachesxo
philsfan1133
pinkheart84
pinkmonkey32
pitandthependulum22
queenrandom04
RowanAnnouncer
Rowan27
rowanluver29
rowanstudent6
saltysurfer322
saycheese03
Senpai Pio
sixfortyfive645
sortableelms
spaghettitacosforthesoul
strawberryfields4
suedejackson
sunflower0311
sunshinegirl457
tarheel1999
teddysdoggydaddy
thatwonguyy
themildewmuncher7
Public Display Name
thirdlady226
tlap23
tmjj4345
toastedflatbread22
tpaz1
tristanb50
twofoursixohtwo
tyblicky2001
venom2929
vicarij0
wakeup5am
Water
wildcuttlefish
wizzard201
xchuki
Lunaduna
zeek
ziggy026
zinny11
zipemup1
zoeyzoey0210
zzbrd2822
Counterintuitive Spring 2023 
-When you say unique, you don’t say utterly unique or truly unique because unique is unique. It is either unique or not.
-When seeing the card trick, we saw that the odds of a certain sequence happening again is 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000. It has never been done before.
-Some people have blended either causal and/or rebuttal arguments into the definition argument and they should be separate.
-Sometimes in a causal argument, one person might do one thing that leads to a certain effect, then another person will do the exact same thing, but for them, it leads to a totally different effect.
Single Cause with a single effect (X causes Y)
Single Cause with multiple effects (X causes Y and Z)
Several Causes with one effect (X and Y cause Z)
Causal Chain cause and effect (X causes Y which causes Z)
Causation Fallacy (X does not cause Y)
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-Today, class began with a very simple card trick.
-The point of the trick was that it does not seem very intricate at first, but the initial claim, “this has never been done before” stands, because there are so many permutations and combinations of which cards can be in which order that it is safe to assume that a deck of cards has never ever been laid out in the way in which they just were
-The trick does a good job of reminding us that things that are impossible happen every day. Me even being conscious and alive today over anybody else is so statistically improbable that it is a miracle. It is impossible, yet here I sit.
-We then discussed what makes a good causal argument.
-The more counterintuitive your topic is, the easier this causal argument should be.
-That being said, if your topic is sort of a hard pill to swallow (like seatbelts being dangerous), you have to do a lot more than others to shoot down counter-arguments, which may take more than 1000 words.
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– Shuffling cards and then laying them out is a magic trick because the odds of those cards ever being played out in the same order you just did is 8x 10^67. but it’s not impossible, the odds are just extremely low.
– causal arguments don’t care about if it’s right or wrong, it’s irrelevant to the argument. Causal argument is about x+y=z, x+y+z, ect. Finding the different causal arguments and their formulas can be found by clicking on “types of causal arguments”
– there are 5 types of causal arguments
– doing your best work and taking time to rewrite after feedback is highly recommended because you won’t know which assignments will be graded higher than others.
– By the end of the day today you should create a post cause causal argument and rewrite causal argument, you should write what you already have in the causal argument post tonight or write a sentence to the professor on what you would like some guidance on to start. Make sure to post in feedback please and causal argument categories.
– Ask professor about your hypothesis and what way you should take it for your causal argument
– you will need 3 to 5 sources for your argument and its okay if some are from your definition argument but you should have some new sources as well.
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The warm-up was about how it’s important to actually name and separate the arguments you’re making in your essay for the sake of your audience to be able to clearly separate the two concepts as separate ideas and why the difference can be made. Then we went over different causal arguments you can have in your essay. Then we did a cause and effect for our assignment.
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– Most of human history has nothing to do with powerful people, but how the population of large lived, and that is often lost in translation while writing history.
– “Name something and it’s yours”: Naming something might be the key to getting a good definition argument together.
– Despite major odds, those odds do not make things impossible.
– In our next assignment, we should focus on collecting cause and effect relationships.
– X causes Z, but Y does not cause Z. (freedom of speech and job controversy)
– X causes Y, which causes Z (sexual assault case)
– Going to need 3-5 sources for upcoming 1000-word essay.
– Can ask professor for help on how to structure in causal argument.
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Professor Hodges demonstrated his unique card trick, laying out 52 playing cards in a random order. While mundane on first observation, the odds of laying out 52 playing cards in that exact order is quite literally unspeakably high. I am not even sure if numbers so large have names.
In preparation for the next assignment,we reviewed the types of causal arguments. Importantly, causal arguments do not make a claim about morality. A causal claim simply observes cause and effect without consideration for whether the cause or effect is right or wrong.
The professor also had us create the causal argument and causal rewrite posts. As always, he strongly encouraged students to ask for feedback and to actually respond when said feedback is given.
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As a recommendation for standing out in a Definitional Argument: “Name something, and it’s Yours”
Casual Argument: there are many different variations of causation.
–X causes Y
–X causes Y and Z
–Both X and Y cause Z
(May want to refute the common knowledge that there’s only ONE cause)
–X causes Y, which causes Z
(Causal “chain”)
–X does NOT cause Y
(examine the rebuttal)
Causal Arguement DUE– WED Mar 29 @ 11:59pm
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For today’s class, the trick with the cards reveals that after 10 people ha shuffled the 52 cards the possibility of repeating the shuffle and laying out the cards, the possibility of repeating the same order would be 1 x 10^52. The switch to learning what is an ethical argument and how what you post on your social media could get you fired one x causes z. Causes can cause other causes but some of the causes can not be the start of the chain. causes don’t always have to be proved as long as the counter to the claim is weak.
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-When you use the term “unique,” there is no need to qualify it with adjectives such as “utterly” or “truly,” as the term already implies singularity. Something is either unique or is not.
-While observing the card trick, we witnessed that the likelihood of the same sequence occurring again is 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000. This sequence has never been replicated before.
-There are individuals who have incorporated both causal and rebuttal arguments into their definition argument, but these should be treated as separate components.
-In certain instances of a causal argument, one person may perform an action that leads to a particular effect, while another individual replicating the same action may experience a completely different outcome.
-A single cause leads to a single effect (X results in Y).
-A single cause results in multiple effects (X leads to both Y and Z).
-Several causes combine to produce a single effect (Both X and Y cause Z).
-Causal chain where one cause leads to another effect (X leads to Y, which in turn leads to Z).
-Causation fallacy where X is not the cause of Y.
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“Name something and it’s yours.” – This is something you can use if you are struggling with your definition argument. Ex. There was a student in Hodges’ class that used the word “history” five times in her piece. She was not clear with how she was using the word “history.” Hodges’ method: if you are trying to distinguish a word that you use a couple of times, come up with a different name for it. Use synonyms that clearly define what you are talking about/the context of your word. Focus your attention on particular aspects of topics.
Seven shuffles of the cards equate to randomness. The unlikeliness of us and the cards are miraculous. Everything that happens in the universe is unique. No two things are identical at the same time and the same place. The sequence of cards may have been done once before. However, the odds of getting the same sequence of cards twice in a row is extremely unlikely.
In a causal argument, we should be trying to prove WHY things happen. Sometimes we also got to prove why other people’s beliefs are wrong. When we start our own causal argument, we got to decide on the types of arguments we want to utilize.
A causal argument can either have a single cause with a single effect {x causes y}, a single cause with several effects {x causes y and z}, several causes for a single effect {Both x and y causes z}, a causal chain {x causes y, which causes z}, or causation fallacy {x does not cause y}. LOOK AT “TYPES OF CAUSES” link up top. You can use any of these in your thesis paper.
Causal argument is due March 29 at 11:59 PM {DONE BUT NEEDS SOME WORK}.
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– We shuffled cards 7 times, and the magic trick was that when you laid out the whole deck the sequence was so unique that the chances of that exact sequence again would be 8 x 10^67. We also compared that to how the chances of us being here is so extremely high because if our parents didn’t get together or grandparents or great-grandparents and so on.
– Types of Casual Arguments:
– Single Cause with a Single Effect (X causes Y)
– Single Cause with Several Effects (X causes Y and Z)
– Several Causes for a Single Effect (Both X and Y cause Z)
– A Causal Chain (X causes Y, which causes Z)
– Causation Fallacy (X does not cause Y)
– Casual Arguments are due March 30th at 11:59pm
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Wake up: We did a card activity to show your life is very valuable and you should never take it for granted.
A single cause has more than one affect. Both x and y cause z. X causes Z, but Y does not cause Z.
Leave a comment with your own argument.
Make a post titled “Causal—Username.” and another titled “Causal Rewrite—Username.”
and write what you already have in the causal argument post tonight or write a sentence to the professor on what you would like some guidance on to start. Post in feedback please and causal argument categories by the end of the day. Say specifically what feedback you’d want.
Post your reaction to a different casual argument on 9/11 and how it made America more racist.
Causal argument is due this Wednesday night.
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Types of Causal Arguments
Single Cause with single effect (x causes y)
Ex: “Facebook can cost us our jobs”
A post you make on social media can cause you to get fired.
Objection is irrelevant to causal argument
Single Cause with Several Effects (X Causes Y and Z)
Ex: We are the casualties of the War on Drugs
Government interference in drug production results in crime, disease, interruption of quality control, and kills people
Don’t want to make ethical arguments rather than causal
Several causes for a single effect (X and Y Causes Z)
Ex: There’s no explanation for gangs”
Produce evidence that a large majority of kids in gangs come from families without a present, positive, male role model.
A Causal Chain (X causes Y, which causes Z
Ex: Failure to prosecute rape causes rape
Premise is that rape is tolerated and every case reinforces the sense that it will be tolerated by the system. College rape cases are reported to campus authorities rather than actual police in order to protect their school’s reputation.
Causation Fallacy (X does not cause Y)
Ex: Violent games are not the missing link
Premise is that nobody has proven a direct correlation between violent video games and actual physical violence in the real world.
Causation Basics
We make causation statements all the time without realizing that we are in engaged in an argument and trying to prove it
Ex: Sixers lost because Ben Simmons refuses to shoot a 3
Types of Causation Statements
Immediate Cause→ Combine to create an episodic effect
Remote Cause→ Lingering effect of past events applies to habits today
Precipitating Cause→ Sudden change allows underlying factors to occur
Contributing Cause→ One individual or object outweighs the other factors in this particular case
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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Name something and it’s yours”
Leave a notes asking for help with a specific topic on your writing
WAKE UP
World’s simplest card trick
Lesson: each one of us is extremely rare if parents, grandparents, great grandparents, and so one, never met we wouldn’t be here
Everything in the universe is unique and once in the universe at a time
CAUSAL ARGUMENT
Single cause argument (x causes Y)
-Causal arguments – it doesn’t matter if it was fair that x caused y
Example: you got fired for posting something about your boss on facebook that is x causes why
You could argue that goes against freedom of speech but that does not matter in a causal argument
What you can do is
-You could certainly make a good argument that employers have different policies
-You could examine how different professions handle social media differently
Single Cause with Several Effects (X causes Y and Z)
Example: “We Are the Casualties of the War on Drugs”
You can argue:
– that the prohibition of certain desirable substances leads inevitably to a frenzied underground and by definition criminal enterprise to meet the demand.
-that criminals aren’t always scrupulous about the quality of the contraband they deliver and that their product often harms or kills.
You do NOT want to:(irrelevant)
-mention that drug use, even sanctioned use of safe prescription drugs, can be very detrimental in and of itself
-dealers get what’s coming to them when they deal in illicit materials and we shouldn’t blame cops
Several Causes for a Single Effect (Both X and Y because Z)
Example: “There’s No One Explanation for Gangs”
You can argue:
-produce evidence that a large majority of the kids in gangs come from families without a present, positive, male role model, but with great care in how you describe the situation, to avoid using misleading shortcuts like “kids with no dads.”
You do NOT want to”
-produce evidence that gangs are more prevalent in public housing projects than in suburban neighborhoods ( this didn’t identify the cause)
A Causal Chain (X causes Y, which causes Z)
Example: “Violent Games Are Not the Missing Link”
DO NOT LEAVE COMMENT UNDER YOUR POST JUST EDIT
Correlation is a connection between two thing it is not the cause
The cause is Causation
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When class began we all observed an interesting card trick. During this trick we discussed how the possibility of the cards being laid out the way that they were was extremely unlikely that we exist now. We also discussed online social media presences because certain jobs would consider your social media presence when considering hiring someone as an employee. We also discussed potential casual argument and discussed the different variations of causation. For example, x causes y, or x causes y and z, or both x and y cause z, or x causes y, which causes z, or x does not cause y.
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– We started out class with a card trick where the deck was shuffled and then laid out. We learned that it is very unlikely to lay out a deck of cards the same way again. We concluded that everything that happens is unique.
– Types of causes
– single cause with a single effect (X causes Y) example: Facebook can cost us our jobs
– Single cause with several effects (X causes Y and Z) Example: We are casualties of the War on Drugs
– Several causes for a single effect (Both X and Y cause Z) Example: There’s no explanation for gangs
– A Causal Change (X causes Y which causes Z) Example: Failure to prosecute rape causes rape
– Causation Fallacy (X does not cause Y) Example: Violent games are not the missing link
– Causal argument Thursday March 30th (make sure you post it twice like you did with the definition argument)
– Make sure you go back and revise other assignments so you can get better grades. Do not forget to comment asking for a regrade.
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World’s Simplest Card Trick:
We discussed what is truly unique. Everything is “unique.”
Shuffling a deck of cards and then laying them out is simply “magic.”
The odds of having the same set is roughly 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000…
However…if it were to happen again, it wouldn’t be impossible but the odds of that would be very (extremely) low.
Types of Causal Arguments:
-Single Cause with a Single Effect (X causes Y)
-Single Cause with Several Effects (X causes Y and Z)
-Several Causes for a Single Effect (Both X and Y cause Z)
-A Causal Chain (X causes Y, which causes Z)
-Causation Fallacy (X does not cause Y)
****Causal Argument due 03.30.23 (03.29.23 at 11:59pm)****
Types of Causation Statements:
-Immediate Cause
-Remote Cause
-Precipitating Cause
-Contributing Cause
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“Name something and it’s yours” When referring to something it is good to be specific. Don’t mention one thing using a single word and make a difference between them.
The World’s Simplest Card Trick is considered very rare and never done before because of how high the odds are of it happening. In short math terms 52! is 8.0658175e+67 which is a very large number. So the odds are 1 in 8.0658175e+67. If it were to be predicted or repeated directly after then it would be considered a miracle in this sense. No two things are the same in the same place.
Types of causes:
– Single Cause with a single effect (X causes Y)
– Single Cause with multiple effects (X causes Y and Z)
– Several Causes with one effect (X and Y caused Z)
– Causal Chain cause and effect (X causes Y which causes Z)
– Causation Fallacy (X does not cause Y)
Types of causation statements causation:
– Immediate Cause
– Remote Cause
– Precipitating Cause
– Contributing Cause
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-Prove why things happen in a causal argument
-No two things are identical at the same time or in the same place
-Causal arguments can have many different causes, more basic than others:
^signle cause with a single effect, X causes Y
^Single cause with multiple effects, X causes Y and Z
^Several causes for a single effect, both X and Y cause Z
^A causal chain, X causes Y which causes Z
^Causation Fallacy, X does not cause Y
-Regardless of the truth it can still be a good argument
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Name something and it’s yours: If you haven’t come up with a name or a category for your argument, you have some work to do. If you are struggling with your argument, try to come up with a name of what you are trying to describe.
Card Trick: Do not take life, or anything, for granted because the odds of us being here are like laying out cards in the same exact order as before. We are impossible. The impossible happens every day.
Everything/the impossible happens, it’s just when we predict it that makes it unique.
No two things are happening at the same exact time and place.
5 types of causal arguments:
– Single cause with a single effect (x causes y)
– Single cause with several effects (x causes y and z)
– Several causes for a single effect (both x and y cause z)
– A causal chain (x causes y, which causes z)
– Causation fallacy (x does not cause y)
Types of causation statements:
– immediate cause
– remote cause
– precipitating cause
– contributing cause
Due next Thursday is the causal argument.
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History is written by winners and losers who suffer the consequences. Think of this when looking into your sources to compartmentalize a definition related to the aspects of your topic.
We are all one of a kind and by just existing we are defining the odds. In class we used a whole deck of playing cards and laid them in rows on the desk. That entire sequence may never be replicated again due to the chances of possibility being extremely low.
Casual- Cause and Effect situations.
We conclude class by going over our next writing assignment, Causal Argument, that will be due by March 30. I will definitely need to revise my first argument writing assignment in order for this one to fit in with the topic I chose.
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Types of Causal Arguments: As long as you don’t say which one is right or wrong to your audience it should be okay since the causal argument isn’t about if it’s right or wrong, it’s about your observation on a topic and the cause and the effect of it.
– Single Cause with a Single Effect (X causes Y)
– Single Cause with Several Effects (X causes Y and Z)
– Several Causes for Single Effect (Both X and Y cause Z)
– Causal Chain (X causes Y, which causes Z)
– Causation Fallacy (X does not cause Y)
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-It is unlikely that anyone has ever shuffled a deck of cards in the same order history, as the chances are 8 x1067
There are 5 kinds of Causal Arguments
Singular Cause & Effect X=Y
-simple relationship between two ideas
Single Cause with Several Effects X=Y,Z
-multiple outcomes due to one common cause
Several Effects Aiding a Single Cause X+Y=Z
-relationship between two events leading to a certain outcome
Chain of Causal Effects X=Y=Z
-portrays a cycle or pattern of events
Causation Fallacy X≠Y
-asserts a point has not been proven yet, and therefore disproves a possible relationship between the cause and effect
Due Dates:
Causal Argument Post Due at Midnight
-Titled “Causal-Username”
-categorize as feedback please
-begin writing argument
Causal Argument Due Thursday 3/30
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Wake Up
– World’s Simplest Card Trick: brought attention to the fact that the impossible can happen everyday, and that the odds of our very existence are miraculous
Causal Arguments
– Single Cause w/ Single Effect: x causes y, but y does not cause z (ex: facebook CAN CAUSE us to lose our jobs, dependent on employer/position/company)
– Single Cause w/ Several Effects: x causes y and z (ex: The War on Drugs CREATES new crime AND interrupts quality control, which kills users and causes disease)
– Several Causes for a Single Effect: both x and y cause z (ex: lack of positive male role models and adequate housing CAUSE occurrence of gangs)
-A Causal Chain: x causes y, which causes z (ex: failure to prosecute rape CAUSES rape)
– Causation Fallacy: x does not cause y (ex: violent video games DO NOT CAUSE violence amongst children)
Causation Basics
– almost never a single cause for a single event: network of causes that result in a network of consequences
– Immediate Cause, Remote Cause, Precipitating Cause (sudden change that results in the consequence of a single cause), Contributing Cause
– need to defend against oversimplification
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Today, the professor first showed us a card trick which explains the odds that their is in the world. It’s not impossible to have the same layout but it is in the odds. We then looked at examples of casual arguments and how we should make it obvious on our assignment, what our argument is, We shouldn’t have both sides in our 1.000 word essay.
One of the examples was that violent video games don”t cause violent children which I 100% agree with. Some may take a liking into it too much but a game can’t really cause one to act more violent. I believe if the parents are strict and set rules early, showing them right from wrong then it’s highly unlikely that violent games will effect them negatively. A game can’t change or effect the way someone acts. I play video games myself and one would never guess that by just looking at me, it’s always a big shock to people.
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“Name something and it’s yours.” By naming your argument, you’re giving it life and starting your essay on good feet to be yours.
Wake up: Professor showed us a unique card trick where he had us shuffle the deck about 10 times. Once shuffled he laid out all the cards and said that the deck was the first ever deck to be laid out that way. That’s because the odds are such a high number that realistically it would only be possible for that deck to be laid out the exact same way before if all of humankind had laid unique decks every second up until this point in time.
Demo: There are 5 different types of causal arguments. They are:
1. (X causes Y) Single cause with a single effect
2. (X causes Y and Z)Single cause with several effects
3. (Both X and Y cause Z)Several causes for a single effect
4. (X causes Y, which causes Z) A causal chain
5. (X does not cause Y) Causation Fallacy
– My reply is on that post.
Causal argument is due Thursday, March 30th, don’t be late! (Wednesday, March 29th at 11:59 pm)
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We went over probability with the card trick
We learned 5 different types of causal arguments
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We talked about the impossible and how we do impossible stuff every day. For example, we did a card trick and talked about how unlikely it is for someone to lay a deck of cards in the same way and in the same order. Then we talked about 5 casual arguments and how we can implement them into our paper for when we use casual arguments.
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Who gets to write history- winners losers/winners naming something might be the key to the definition argument. Help with compact sizing a category.
Riddle: card trick – a lot of impossible things happen often we ourselves are impossible against the odds we are still here never despairing.
Collect cause and affect relationships x causes z but y doesn’t cause z
Multiple things can be the reason for casual argument also there can be casual chains.
Looking for likely cause sufficient explanation argue against over implication- not trying to argue with a shadow of a doubt about a cause.
3-5 citing unique sources for casual argument
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-Laying cards on the table is a magic trick. The trick is that the chances of you getting the same deals as someone else are rare and, therefore, never done before. It is possible, but the changes are low. I learned a valuable lesson that the impossible could occur daily and that you shouldn’t take anything for granted because the chances of me being here were high. We also reviewed the different casual arguments and cause and effect.
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Class Notes 3/21:
– Unique is a characteristic given to something that doesn’t necessarily have measurement. If something is unique then it is unique. There really isn’t a hierarchy within uniqueness.
-Remember to keep your causal arguments out of your definition/categorical papers as some people have kind of blended them.
-Causal arguments can have several different aspects that can be examined. Examples: X causes Y(Single Cause/Effect); X causes Y and Z(Single Cause with Multiple effects); X and Y cause Z ( Multiple causes with one result); X causes Y which causes Z (Causal Chain); X does not cause Y(Causation Fallacy)
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